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Nature‐based approaches to flood risk management are increasing in popularity. Evidence for the effectiveness at the catchment scale of such spatially distributed upstream measures is inconclusive. However, it also remains an open question whether, under certain conditions, the individual impacts of a collection of flood mitigation interventions could combine to produce a detrimental effect on runoff response. A modelling framework is presented for evaluation of the impacts of hillslope and in‐channel natural flood management interventions. It couples an existing semidistributed hydrological model with a new, spatially explicit, hydraulic channel network routing model. The model is applied to assess a potential flood mitigation scheme in an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire, United Kingdom, comprising various configurations of a single variety of in‐channel feature. The hydrological model is used to generate subsurface and surface fluxes for a flood event in 2012. The network routing model is then applied to evaluate the response to the addition of up to 59 features. Additional channel and floodplain storage of approximately 70,000 m3 is seen with a reduction of around 11% in peak discharge. Although this might be sufficient to reduce flooding in moderate events, it is inadequate to prevent flooding in the double‐peaked storm of the magnitude that caused damage within the catchment in 2012. Some strategies using features specific to this catchment are suggested in order to improve the attenuation that could be achieved by applying a nature‐based approach.  相似文献   
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Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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Wolfe Creek crater lies in northwestern Australia at the edge of the Great Sandy Desert. Together with Meteor Crater, it is one of the two largest craters on Earth from which meteorite fragments have been recovered. The age of the impact is poorly constrained and unpublished data places the event at about 300,000 years ago. In comparison, Meteor Crater is well constrained by exposure dating. In this paper, we present new ages for Wolfe Creek Crater from exposure dating using the cosmogenic nuclides 10Be and 26Al, together with optically stimulated luminescence ages (OSL) on sand from a site created by the impact. We also present a new topographic survey of the crater using photogrammetry. The exposure ages range from ~86 to 128 ka. The OSL ages indicate that the age of the impact is most likely to be ~120 ka with a maximum age of 137 ka. Considering the geomorphic setting, the most likely age of the crater is 120 ± 9 ka. Last, we review the age of Meteor Crater in Arizona. Changes in production rates and scaling factors since the original dating work revise the impact age to 61.1 ± 4.8 ka, or ~20% older than previously reported.  相似文献   
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The suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic conductivity (K) to length scales commensurate with hydraulic data is difficult to assess. A novel method is presented for evaluating assumed relations between K and geologic interpretations for regional-scale groundwater modeling. The approach relies on simultaneous interpretation of multiple aquifer tests using alternative geologic frameworks of variable complexity, where each framework is incorporated as prior information that assumes homogeneous K within each model unit. This approach is tested at Pahute Mesa within the Nevada National Security Site (USA), where observed drawdowns from eight aquifer tests in complex, highly faulted volcanic rocks provide the necessary hydraulic constraints. The investigated volume encompasses 40 mi3 (167 km3) where drawdowns traversed major fault structures and were detected more than 2 mi (3.2 km) from pumping wells. Complexity of the five frameworks assessed ranges from an undifferentiated mass of rock with a single unit to 14 distinct geologic units. Results show that only four geologic units can be justified as hydraulically unique for this location. The approach qualitatively evaluates the consistency of hydraulic property estimates within extents of investigation and effects of geologic frameworks on extrapolation. Distributions of transmissivity are similar within the investigated extents irrespective of the geologic framework. In contrast, the extrapolation of hydraulic properties beyond the volume investigated with interfering aquifer tests is strongly affected by the complexity of a given framework. Testing at Pahute Mesa illustrates how this method can be employed to determine the appropriate level of geologic complexity for large-scale groundwater modeling.  相似文献   
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The LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb geochronology international community has defined new standards for the determination of U‐(Th‐)Pb ages. A new workflow defines the appropriate propagation of uncertainties for these data, identifying random and systematic components. Only data with uncertainties relating to random error should be used in weighted mean calculations of population ages; uncertainty components for systematic errors are propagated after this stage, preventing their erroneous reduction. Following this improved uncertainty propagation protocol, data can be compared at different uncertainty levels to better resolve age differences. New reference values for commonly used zircon, monazite and titanite reference materials are defined (based on ID‐TIMS) after removing corrections for common lead and the effects of excess 230Th. These values more accurately reflect the material sampled during the determination of calibration factors by LA‐ICP‐MS analysis. Recommendations are made to graphically represent data only with uncertainty ellipses at 2s and to submit or cite validation data with sample data when submitting data for publication. New data‐reporting standards are defined to help improve the peer‐review process. With these improvements, LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb data can be considered more robust, accurate, better documented and quantified, directly contributing to their improved scientific interpretation.  相似文献   
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Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO2 emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.  相似文献   
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